New York's Violent Crime Rate Drops to Lows of Early 1970's "Now that I feel much safer," she said, "I'll go out as late as midnight to buy milk at the corner for my daughters." Murders in her precinct have dropped to 18, from 22 last year and 50 in 1993. "New York has enjoyed a significant drop in crime that can't be easily explained by sociological factors," said Mark H. Moore, a criminologist at Harvard University. "Therefore, the claim that this might be the result of police activity looks pretty good." "We are showing that police can change behavior," Mr. Bratton said. "We were probably the most permissive and tolerant city in America for social deviancy. Now we're one of the least tolerant cities when it comes to the abuse of public space." In a dramatic acceleration of a four-year trend, New York City's crime rate in 1995 registered its steepest drop in 23 years, belying commonly held fears of wanton violence that were most recently stirred by the deadly assault at a Harlem clothing store and the killings of five people at a Bronx shoe store. Coming on the heels of a sharp decline the year before, the rate of violent crime in New York City is now at its lowest point since the early 1970's. The trend in New York is not isolated; other big cities, like Houston and San Diego, have registered similar declines. But New York has seized the attention of policy makers and criminologists because its decrease has been sustained and contrasts sharply with increases in nearby cities like Newark, Hartford and Philadelphia. A growing number of analysts, who had earlier argued that external factors like an aging population, longer prison stays and waning violence involving drug dealers were responsible for the drop, are now willing to concede that new Police Department strategies are making a substantial impact. The reduction has been roughly even in rich and poor neighborhoods across the city, but while a 60 percent decrease in murders on the Upper West Side meant 4 fewer deaths in 1995, a 51 percent decrease in the East New York section of Brooklyn during the same period meant 44 fewer deaths. Likewise, while a 36 percent decrease in shootings in Park Slope, Brooklyn, meant 6 fewer victims, a 17 percent decrease in the nearby neighborhood of Flatbush meant 24 fewer victims. "For many years, minorities have been suffering way out of proportion to their numbers," Police Commissioner William J. Bratton said. "So they are going to benefit a lot from the decline in homicides and shootings." Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani said the numbers mean that "a lot of people are safer and a lot of lives have been saved." "But most particularly," he said, "it happened in the poorer communities in the city and in the minority communities." "This drop exceeds any of the expectations we had when we first started," the Mayor said. "The real challenge now is to make sure they stay permanent." The 1,156 slayings reported through Dec. 24 represented the lowest number in that category of crime since the early 1970's. For the same 51-week period this year, the 18 percent drop in robbery and 16 percent decline in burglary marked the lowest levels of reported incidents of those crimes since the late 1960's. The numbers show that 399 fewer people were killed in the first 51 weeks of 1995, compared with the same period in 1994. Of the seven major crime categories involving felonies, only first-degree rape did not register a double-digit percentage drop; it decreased 2 percent. Murders increased in a handful of New York City's 76 precincts, like the 81st, which covers parts of Bushwick and Bedford-Stuyvesant. But every precinct experienced declines in total felonies -- murder, robbery, rape, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and auto theft. And over the two-year period since 1993, every precinct saw double-digit declines in the overall crime rate. It was the first time since World War II that a consecutive double-digit drop was recorded citywide. Marilyn Sanchez, 36, a hairdresser who lives near 207th Street and Post Avenue in the 34th Precinct in Manhattan, which includes Inwood and northern Washington Heights, said she was afraid to go out at night "say two or three years ago." "Now that I feel much safer," she said, "I'll go out as late as midnight to buy milk at the corner for my daughters." Murders in her precinct have dropped to 18, from 22 last year and 50 in 1993. But not everyone feels as secure. At a bodega on a cheerless corner at East 152d Street and Union Avenue in the South Bronx, Sandra Morales, a 35-year-old cashier, refused to believe crime was going down, noting the steady stream of crime stories in the newspapers. Edward Velasquez, a 15-year-old high school student working part-time in the store, chimed in: "All the time you see cops, threats, kids with guns and drugs. Every time I go outside, gangs look at me hard. People can't go out without fear." But in their precinct, the 40th, murders dropped to 27 this year as of Dec. 24 from 40 last year and from 70 in 1993. The plunge in violent crime in New York has spurred a vigorous debate among social scientists about what lies behind what Jeffrey Fagan, a Columbia University criminologist, calls "this miracle." Prosecutors credit the use of Federal racketeering statutes, once used only against organized crime, in breaking up some of the most violent street gangs, and the addition of 5,000 police officers to the department in the last two years. Experts note that an aging population, longer prison sentences and informal peace pacts by drug gangs have had an impact. But a growing number of crime experts are commending Commissioner Bratton. "New York has enjoyed a significant drop in crime that can't be easily explained by sociological factors," said Mark H. Moore, a criminologist at Harvard University. "Therefore, the claim that this might be the result of police activity looks pretty good." Mr. Bratton's strategies, leading to a 25 percent increase in misdemeanor and felony arrests since 1993, include focusing on chop shops and fences to combat auto theft and burglary, and interrogating suspects in minor crimes for information about gun and drug trafficking. Anticipating crimes, the department is redeploying patrol and plainclothes officers to "hot spots" identified through daily computer mapping of shootings and drug deals. Under Mr. Bratton, officers walking their beats have been ordered to confront and issue summonses to people seen committing such minor offenses as drinking beer in public or vending without a license. The friskings of low-level offenders has been sharply criticized by some civil libertarians and is one reason for a two-year jump in abuse complaints, but it apparently has discouraged people from carrying unregistered guns on the street. "We are showing that police can change behavior," Mr. Bratton said. "We were probably the most permissive and tolerant city in America for social deviancy. Now we're one of the least tolerant cities when it comes to the abuse of public space." Whatever the reasons, New York is leading all major cities in drops in murder, burglary and motor vehicle theft. Ranked by the Justice Department as the 88th most crime-ridden city out of 183 with populations of 100,000 or more in 1993, New York dropped to 101 in 1994, and to 136 in the first half of this year measured on a per capita basis. And the city is well ahead of others in the region, according to Justice Department statistics comparing the first six months of the year with the same period last year. While the crime rate dropped 16 percent in New York during that period, it increased by 4 percent in Albany, 1 percent in Rochester and decreased by only 6 percent in Buffalo and 7 percent in Yonkers. In New Jersey, the crime rate increased by 7 percent in Newark, 10 percent in Elizabeth and 1 percent in Jersey City, while it decreased by 7 percent in Paterson. In Connecticut, the rate increased by 5 percent in Hartford, and by 19 percent in both Stamford and Waterbury. In Philadelphia, crime increased during the first six months of this year by 5 percent over the same period last year. Still, people fear for their safety, as even Mayor Giuliani acknowledges. "I actually believe the impact of decreased crime here is seen better by outsiders," he said. "New Yorkers will take another six months to accept this." That change may slowly be under way. Richard S. Curtis, an anthropologist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice who surveys attitudes toward crime, said that even in his neighborhood, the Brownsville section of Brooklyn, "two years ago I used to hear a lot of gunfights right outside my window. But last summer, I didn't hear a single one." The 73d Precinct, which covers Brownsville, has experienced some of the city's biggest declines in crime, including a 62 percent drop in murder since 1993 and a 56 percent decline in the number of shooting victims. Mr. Curtis said surveys in his neighborhood and other high-crime communities indicate that local residents and business owners are feeling the change. "Some blacks and Hispanics will tell you they don't feel more secure, but I think there is a groundswell coming," he said. "People are beginning to feel a lot safer now." Correction: January 11, 1996, Thursday Because of an editing error, an article on Dec. 31 about the drop in violent crime in New York City referred incorrectly to the corresponding rates in Hartford and Newark. While the number of all crimes in those cities increased during the first six months of 1995 over the same period a year earlier, according to Justice Department figures, the number of violent crimes decreased.
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CLIFFORD KRAUSS. New York Times. (Late Edition (East Coast)). New York, N.Y.: Dec 31, 1995. pg. 1.1 Subjects: CRIME AND CRIMINALS Locations: NEW YORK CITY, SAN DIEGO (CALIF), HOUSTON (TEX), NEWARK (NJ), HARTFORD (CONN), PHILADELPHIA (PA), NEW YORK, NY, USA, HARTFORD, CT, USA Author(s): CLIFFORD KRAUSS Section: 1 Publication title: New York Times. (Late Edition (East Coast)). New York, N.Y.: Dec 31, 1995. pg. 1.1 Source Type: Newspaper ISSN/ISBN: 03624331 ProQuest document ID: 673559141 Text Word Count 1541 Article URL: http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&res_ dat=xri:pqd&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&genre=a rticle&rft_dat=xri:pqd:did=000000673559141&svc_dat=xri:pqil: fmt=text&req_dat=xri:pqil:pq_clntid=4676 Abstract (Article Summary) 
Full Text (1541 words) Copyright New York Times Company Dec 31, 1995 [Graph] "Crime in the City 1995" shows statistics for murders, rapes,burgalries and car thefts in N.Y.C. for 1995. (pg. 32); "Declining Crimes" shows N.Y.C. totals for selected crimes from 1975 to 1995. (Source: NYCPD)(p. 1) Copyright © Streetgangs.com, All RIGHTS RESERVED. Disclaimer
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