LOS ANGELES HOMICIDES
PLUNGE TO 28-YEAR LOW;
December 28, 1998
LA Times
CRIME: NUMBER IN '98 FELL 27% FROM YEAR BEFORE, POLICE SAY. REASONS CITED
INCLUDE STIFFER SENTENCES, GOOD ECONOMY.
BYLINE: MATT LAIT, TIMES STAFF WRITER
BODY:
Far outpacing national trends, homicides in
Los Angeles this year have dropped to the lowest level in almost three decades, according
to preliminary police statistics.
The dramatic drop marks the sixth straight year that homicides have declined in
the city.
Los Angeles Police Department statistics show that homicides have plummeted about 27% from
last year, when slayings also dropped significantly.
"It's a rather amazing decline," said Eric H. Monkkonen, a professor of policy studies and history at UCLA.
The downward spiral in
Los Angeles exceeds nationwide trends, which show homicides declining about 8% through the
first six months of 1998.
"Obviously, we're very pleased with the reduction of homicides in the city," said Cmdr. David J. Kalish, the LAPD's spokesman.
"But we must always remember that even one murder is one too many."
Fewer homicides have meant more time for detectives to focus on investigating
and solving murder cases, officials said. In 1992, when slayings hit a record
in the city, the so-called
"clearance" rate for solving homicides was 58%. Last year, the clearance rate was 71%.
LAPD officials predict that the rate will be even higher this year.
As of Dec. 28, there had been 414 homicides in the city, LAPD records show. The
last time there were fewer homicides was in 1970, when 394 people were killed.
In areas patrolled by the
Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, homicides had dropped 5% this year as of
November, to 244 from
257 in the same period last year, according to the department's most recent
statistics.
UCLA's Monkkonen says the statistics are even more striking when measured
against the city's population, which has grown according to some estimates by
as many as 1 million people over the past three decades.
According to his research, about 11 people were slain this year for every
100,000 people in the city. The last time the ratio was that low was in 1967.
In 1992, when a record number of homicides--1,092--occurred in the city, the
rate was about 31 slayings for every 100,000 people. LAPD statistics do not
include
"justifiable homicides," such as incidents of self-defense or cases in which a police officer lawfully
kills a suspect.
Law enforcement experts attribute the steady decrease in homicides and other
violent
crime locally and nationally to a number of factors, including a stronger
economy, stabilization of the lucrative and often deadly drug trade, stiffer
sentencing laws, improved policing tactics, periodic truces among violent
street gangs, gun control efforts and an overall decrease in the number of
young adults in the age groups most likely to commit crimes.
LAPD officials also note that the police force has grown by 2,000 officers
since 1992, which means more officers are patrolling the streets.
Additionally, academics say there has been a proliferation of anti-violence
programs, which may have--at least in a small way--helped.
It is clear, however, that no single factor accounts for such a precipitous
drop.
"Everyone of us who wears a badge and gun is searching for answers for why and
how this has occurred,"
said Palos Verdes Estates Police Chief Timm Browne, spokesman for the
California Peace Officers Assn.
"There isn't anyone out there who calls himself a true professional who isn't
thankful," said Browne, whose city has not had a homicide this year.
Said Monkkonen:
"Do we think it is going to go down next year? Yes, we do. The tricky thing is
figuring out when it will go back up and why."
He compared violence to a contagious disease that spreads faster and faster.
But, he added, a decrease in violence works the same way: When crime starts
dropping, the decline gains momentum, just as it does when crime goes up.
Whatever the decline's causes, LAPD officials are confident of at least one
effect--an increase in the number of cases solved.
In the early 1990s, workloads
for detectives were so heavy that they had no realistic hope of thoroughly
investigating every homicide. The situation was so bad in 1995 that FBI
officials came in to help detectives at the LAPD's South Bureau.
A 1996 study by The Times showed that only a third of all homicide cases in the
county during a five-year period starting in 1990 ended with a conviction for
murder or manslaughter.
Today, detectives have enough time to work on unsolved cases from the past.
"We can do a much better job when we have smaller caseloads," said Lt. John Dunkin, who supervises homicide detectives in the South Bureau.
"In the past, with the sheer weight of the caseloads, you couldn't spend the
amount of time you wanted on each case."
He said that in 1992, two-person detective
teams would work on 20 or more homicides a year. Now, such teams are assigned
five or six cases a year.
"In next year's budget, it's clear we can cut back on the yellow tape and chalk," said one optimistic city official, referring to the materials that officers
use to seal off a crime scene and to mark the position of a victim's body.
In addition to homicides, violent crimes such as rapes, robberies and assaults
have dropped significantly. LAPD records show that overall crime in the city,
as of Dec. 26, has decreased 12.6% compared to last year.
Despite the declining crime rates, several measures of police productivity,
such as field interviews, have increased or remained about the same compared to
last year. Police response times have improved 1.4% to an average of 6.8
minutes per call.
Field interviews have jumped 3.9%. Arrests, however, have dropped 2.2% this
year.
The bad news for police is that although it has been safer for city residents
over the past six years, the same cannot be said for law enforcement officers.
A report released Tuesday by the Washington, D.C.-based National Law
Enforcement Officers Memorial shows that police deaths have increased more than
20% since 1992.
And, for the fifth straight year, California was the deadliest state in the
nation for law enforcement, with 17 police fatalities. At the LAPD, three
officers were killed in the line of duty this year.
Homicides in U.S. Cities
Homicide rates have been falling in the city of
Los Angeles and nationwide. The following charts show homicides in
Los Angeles from 1989-98 and year-to-date homicides for 1998 and
total homicides for 1997 for several major U.S. cities.
City of L.A. Homicides
Dec. 28, 1998: 414
****
Estimated 1997 Estimated 1998
1998 rate per 100,000 rate per 100,000
City Year-To-Date* inhabitants inhabitants
Los Angeles 414 569 15.5 11.2
New York 616 754 10.2 N/A
Chicago 695 759 28.3 N/A
Atlanta 146 150 37.3 N/A
Dallas 222** 202 19.4 N/A
Denver 56 72 14.4 N/A
Houston 229** 254 14.7 N/A
Miami 94 103 26.6 N/A
Sacramento 33 44 11.6 8.4
San Diego 51 67 5.7 4.2
San Francisco 63 59 7.8 7.9
Note: 1998
preliminary data; rates per 100,000 inhabitants are based on 1997 and 1998
population estimates
* through Dec. 28, 1998.
** through Nov. 30, 1998.
Sources:
Los Angeles Police Department, California Department of Finance's city/county population
estimates, city police departments, Rand McNally Commercial Atlas.
Researched by NONA YATES